Our first significant mid-latitude cyclone moved rapidly through the Great Plains yesterday. As I predicted, it dropped a couple of small and brief-lived tornadoes in the northern sector of the cold core low pressure cell. Nothing worth chasing up here, in terms of tornadoes, but the wrap around blizzard has been causing plenty of problems in the northern Great Plains and Midwest. The Dakotas could easily be looking at epic flooding in a few weeks.
The first
real weather maker for the
central Great Plains arrives later this week. From the beginning, this system has always looked more vigorous than the last in the forecast models. Right now, the Front Range looks to receive significant upslope winds. Combined with ample moisture, this should result in six to ten inches of snow for the Metro area, and probably more than ten inches of snow for the base of the foothills. These systems are usually accompanied by strong downslope winds on their backside, so I expect to see a lot of ground blizzards and general drifting throughout central Colorado as the system exits to the east. Across the rest of the Plains states, snow will be likely as well. Although there is nothing to indicate freezing precipitation events yet, I suspect sonde data closer to the time of the event will show a sufficient cold wedge near the surface and some freezing drizzle out on the Plains. If cloud depth is sufficient, freezing rain is a possibility as well. Time will tell! In any case, I will be chasing something by the end of this week and I'll post a photo or two early next week. Ahhh, spring break!
As I'm finishing typing this, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Denver Metro area until 5:00am on Friday.
EDIT: This looks to be a classic Four Corners Low. If the forecast models verify, this will have very strong upslope flow, and perhaps the strongest we have seen in many months.